Roger's Blog

Are you looking for a summer reading suggestion? You might expect me to recommend a non-fiction book since that’s what I write, but I suggest a recently released novel that is both gripping and highly informative. You can learn from novels as well as be entertained. That was true about Fyodor Dostoevsky whose description of the human psyche in The Brothers Karamazov was as profound (or more so) than Freud. His psychological principles about reward and punishment have been replicated by hundreds of experiments a hundred years after Dostoevsky wrote his classic novels. And if you like fast-paced but accurate legal details that make John Grisham’s novels so believable, you will relish just-released Chinese Conspiracy by John Mariotti. Chinese Conspiracy is fiction, but fact-based as well as fascinating. As a rule, absorbing novels also have a few romantic episodes, and yes, this novel follows that rule. While reading this intriguing and riveting saga, you gain fascinating insights into at least three cultures: China (along with Iran and Pakistan), Rural America (specifically West Virginia), and U.S. government agencies (CIA, FBI, DHS and other D.C. bureaucracies). Will the quest between China and the U.S. for world dominance be won with nuclear bombs […]

The topic in my latest book, Objective Prosperity, “Why Some Countries are Rich and Why Some Countries Are Poor” just won the Nobel Prize for Economics. Those words are chosen carefully; it was the topic, not my book that won the Nobel Prize. The winners were Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson of MIT and Chicago Booth School of Business for research in their book, Why Nations Fail. Jakob Svensson, chair of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences, said their analysis has provided “a much deeper understanding of the root causes of why countries fail or succeed.” The Associated Press called it the most important topic in economics, and a clear signal that the causes are different than conclusions from traditional economics. But you already knew that if you read Objective Prosperity by Blackwell and Bailey. You know that behavioral economics provides a richer understanding of why some people live in poverty compared to those who are prosperous. Our book is more recent than Acemoglu et. al. and shows how attributes that make a nation prosperous also make people and organizations prosperous. In other words, we show how the principles that won the Nobel prize also […]

You may have heard someone say, “he was boogieing it up” referring to being something other than their actual selves. Is that good or bad? Emulating aristocratic possessions is not good, of course, but the term is derived from Bourgeois values – behavior guided by middle class values. Research by behavioral economist Dr. Diedre McClosky, whom we reference extensively in our recent book, documents that values achieving prosperity are bourgeois. We do not define prosperity in our book because we want every reader to develop their personal definition of prosperity. We also want each reader to draw their own conclusions about values that lead to their own prosperity, but law professors Amy Wax and Larry Alexander generated considerable controversy when they published the following summary of values creating prosperity. “Get married before you have children and strive to stay married for their sake. Get the education you need for gainful employment, work hard and avoid idleness. Go the extra mile for your employer or client. Be a patriot, civic-minded and charitable. Avoid coarse language in public. Be respectful of authority. Eschew substance abuse and crime.” (WSJ) What do you think, did these values make America great? Do they lead to […]

Massive media marketing surrounds Ozempic, Wegovy, and other weight reduction products, a topic important not only to economists but to anyone who pays taxes for Medicare and other health programs. A recent report by the U.S. Joint Economic Committee estimates obesity will result in $8.2 to $9.1 trillion in excess medical expenditures over the next ten years. Can behavioral economics provide a solution? According to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, approximately 73.6% of adults in the United States are overweight or obese. Almost 43% are considered obese, which often coexists with other health conditions, such as heart disease, sleep apnea, and diabetes. I was once a behavioral consultant to the U.S. Bureau of Primary Health Care (BPHC) studying Type 2 diabetes, probably the most expensive disease considering indirect costs of heart, eyesight and many other problems. It is probably also the most preventable disease. I developed an answer to the high costs (and side effects) of weight reduction products which I call the Half Plate Plan or HPP. I started at restaurants and then transitioned to meals at home. At restaurants, when a plate is first served, I use the knife to cut the portion in […]

The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the U.S. economy added 256,000 new jobs in December, higher than expectations but fewer jobs in 2024 than in 2023. However, the number of people who have been unemployed for at least six months is 1.6 million, up by 278,000 from the same time the previous year. The economy gained 2.2 million jobs in 2024, less than the three million jobs added in 2023. The strength in jobs causes most experts to believe the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts, especially since unemployment fell slightly to 4.1%. These data raise the issue of what causes unemployment or underemployment and what can be done to increase the number employed and individual prosperity. Government does not create jobs; entrepreneurs do. Unfortunately, large firms often grow by merger and acquisition, usually with the result of cutting jobs. The real hope for increasing jobs and higher income lies with mid-level and new firms serving the needs of consumers with innovative or improved products and services. “Who will give me a job?” How can I find a job paying higher income?” Those are questions unemployed or underemployed people have sometimes asked, questions motivating […]

That was my topic at a seminar for CLBC, a logistics group in Columbus. This photo was sent to me by one the attendees at the seminar, a breakfast meeting at 7 am (not my favorite time to speak!) Are tariffs good or bad? The answer most economists give is bad because tariffs create less efficient use of national resources and, like other taxes, usually cause slower economic growth. Most consumers call tariffs bad because they raise prices, not only the price consumers see at retailers but also the costs of materials used by supply chains to make, transport, and distribute products. If tariffs protect jobs of specific industries such as steel, those workers might welcome tariffs, but consumers who pay higher prices for cars, trucks, appliances, and other products made of steel might disagree. Also, if consumers spend their limited resources on products made with higher priced steel, they have less money available to buy other products, reducing employment in firms selling other products and services. But tariffs have other effects, usually longer-term. They can be tools to encourage other nations to drop non-tariff but unfair practices such as dumping, government subsidized industries, or restrictive regulations. Sometimes tariffs “nudge” […]

My most recent article was in the October 2013 issue of Marketing Management, a publication of the American Marketing Association. It described why GDP in the United States (and Europe) will not grow in the future as rapidly as in the past. The explanation for rapid growth in the past was migration from rural homes to urban and from mothers working mostly at home to working mostly outside home. Both of those trends cause the products most people consume to be purchased rather than self-produced, a profound fact in understanding the future of domestic and global economies. Read more here…